Detailed Analysis
Statistical comparisons of tokens launched during different market cycles.
Annualized ROI by Launch Cycle
Bull median ann. ROI
-57.6%
Bear median ann. ROI
-53.9%
Fraction Currently in Top 100
Percentage of tokens from each cycle still in the top 100 by market cap today.
Statistical Tests
Comparing Bull vs Bear launched tokens using Mann-Whitney U test (non-parametric, no normality assumption).
Annualized ROI
p-value
0.6997
effect size
-0.042
negligible
95% CI (median diff)
[-13.2%, 11.2%]
sample sizes
106 / 38
bull / bear
ROI vs BTC (Geometric Excess Return)
p-value
0.6134
effect size
0.056
negligible
95% CI (median diff)
[-2.7%, 3.9%]
p < 0.05 suggests a statistically significant difference. Effect size (rank-biserial correlation) indicates practical magnitude.
Sensitivity Analysis
Testing whether the conclusion changes when cycle boundaries are shifted by 1-2 months in either direction.
| Boundary Shift | p-value | Bull n | Bear n | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| -2 months | 0.5785 | 96 | 45 | Not significant |
| -1 months | 0.5320 | 100 | 41 | Not significant |
| Baseline | 0.6997 | 106 | 38 | Not significant |
| +1 months | 0.9253 | 113 | 29 | Not significant |
| +2 months | 0.8365 | 115 | 24 | Not significant |
Top 10 by Annualized ROI
| Token | Cycle | Ann. ROI | ROI | vs BTC | Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| First Neiro on Ethereum neiro | 2023-2025 Bull | 63.2% | 99.8% | 71.1% | #613 |
| Dogecoin doge | 2013 Bull (Fall) | 32.0% | 2842.1% | -68.4% | #9 |
| Pepe pepe | 2023 Recovery | 26.9% | 94.1% | -19.0% | #48 |
| Trust Wallet Token twt | 2020-2021 Bull | 24.0% | 196.3% | 39.6% | #170 |
| Pendle pendle | 2023 Recovery | 12.1% | 34.8% | -40.4% | #171 |
| Theta Fuel tfuel | 2019-2020 Recovery | 9.9% | 88.6% | -78.6% | #257 |
| FLOKI floki | 2023 Recovery | -1.7% | -4.6% | -60.2% | #138 |
| Quant qnt | 2018-2019 Bear | -4.1% | -27.5% | -93.5% | #66 |
| Decred dcr | 2016-2017 Bull | -4.4% | -36.5% | -99.7% | #108 |
| Holo hot | 2018-2019 Bear | -6.4% | -39.5% | -93.5% | #378 |