Detailed Analysis
Statistical comparisons of tokens launched during different market cycles.
Annualized ROI by Launch Cycle
Bull median ann. ROI
-57.3%
Bear median ann. ROI
-59.8%
Fraction Currently in Top 100
Percentage of tokens from each cycle still in the top 100 by market cap today.
Statistical Tests
Comparing Bull vs Bear launched tokens using Mann-Whitney U test (non-parametric, no normality assumption).
Annualized ROI
p-value
0.8100
effect size
0.028
negligible
95% CI (median diff)
[-10.9%, 14.2%]
sample sizes
101 / 33
bull / bear
ROI vs BTC (Geometric Excess Return)
p-value
0.3717
effect size
0.105
small
95% CI (median diff)
[-1.7%, 5.1%]
p < 0.05 suggests a statistically significant difference. Effect size (rank-biserial correlation) indicates practical magnitude.
Anchoring Analysis
A natural objection: if bull-market tokens launch at higher FDVs and ROI is equivalent, they would maintain higher absolute dollar valuations. Does the launch-day premium persist?
We test this by comparing launch-day market caps, FDV proxies, and current market caps between bull and bear groups.
Launch-Day Circulating Market Cap
207.6M
Bull median (n=93)
325.0M
Bear median (n=33)
Launch-Day FDV Proxy
893.0M
Bull median (n=92)
1.2B
Bear median (n=33)
FDV proxy = launch price × current total supply (overestimates launch FDV since supply grows over time)
Current Market Cap
35.1M
Bull median (n=99)
39.4M
Bear median (n=37)
The anchoring hypothesis assumes bull tokens launch at higher valuations. The data shows the opposite: bear tokens launched at somewhat higher market caps, and current market caps are nearly identical. There is no evidence of a persistent launch-day valuation premium from bull-market conditions.
Sensitivity Analysis
Testing whether the conclusion changes when cycle boundaries are shifted by 1-2 months in either direction.
| Boundary Shift | p-value | Bull n | Bear n | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| -2 months | 0.8383 | 92 | 39 | Not significant |
| -1 months | 0.8533 | 96 | 35 | Not significant |
| Baseline | 0.8100 | 101 | 33 | Not significant |
| +1 months | 0.7368 | 105 | 27 | Not significant |
| +2 months | 0.9251 | 107 | 22 | Not significant |
Moving Average Robustness Check
Instead of hand-labeled market cycles, we classify bull/bear regimes quantitatively: a token launched when BTC was above its N-day simple moving average is “bull,” below is “bear.”
We test multiple MA windows. None produce a significant difference, confirming the result is not an artifact of how cycles are defined.
| MA Window | p-value | Effect Size | Bull n | Bear n | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 50-day SMA | 0.0794 | 0.175(small) | 98 | 51 | Not significant |
| 100-day SMA | 0.7728 | 0.029(negligible) | 101 | 48 | Not significant |
| 200-day SMA | 0.4313 | 0.084(negligible) | 108 | 41 | Not significant |
| 300-day SMA | 0.7810 | 0.034(negligible) | 119 | 29 | Not significant |
The 200-day SMA is the industry-standard regime indicator. Row highlighted. With 4 tests, Bonferroni-corrected threshold would be p < 0.0125. The lowest p-value (0.079) is well above this.
Top 10 by Annualized ROI
| Token | Cycle | Ann. ROI | ROI | vs BTC | Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Quant qnt | 2018-2019 Bear | 87.4% | 12075.5% | 984.7% | #66 |
| First Neiro on Ethereum neiro | 2023-2025 Bull | 63.1% | 99.8% | 71.1% | #613 |
| Dogecoin doge | 2013 Bull (Fall) | 52.6% | 17174.9% | 85.7% | #9 |
| Decred dcr | 2016-2017 Bull | 38.5% | 2506.4% | -86.0% | #108 |
| Pepe pepe | 2023 Recovery | 26.9% | 94.1% | -19.0% | #48 |
| Trust Wallet Token twt | 2020-2021 Bull | 24.0% | 196.3% | 39.6% | #170 |
| Theta Fuel tfuel | 2019-2020 Recovery | 9.9% | 88.6% | -78.6% | #257 |
| FLOKI floki | 2023 Recovery | -1.7% | -4.6% | -60.2% | #138 |
| Holo hot | 2018-2019 Bear | -6.4% | -39.5% | -93.5% | #378 |
| Everipedia iq | 2020-2021 Bull | -6.8% | -33.0% | -90.8% | #611 |