Does it matter when you launch your token?
An analysis of every token whose listing was announced on the Binance blog (203 tokens after filtering), comparing long-term performance by market cycle, including 28 that were later delisted.
The Verdict
No, launching in a bull vs bear market does not predict performance.
There is no statistically significant difference in performance between tokens launched in bull markets vs bear markets.
There may be other considerations in when you choose to launch your token: cost, exchange fees, marketing expenses, etc. But if anything, those likely cut against launching in a bull market, as they tend to be higher in bulls vs bears.
That said, if you are doing a token sale along with your launch, the inverse is true—if you’re actually selling tokens, then obviously a bull market is better for you.
Bull Market Launches(n=106)
-57.6%
median annualized ROI
16.5%
delist rate
Bear Market Launches(n=38)
-53.9%
median annualized ROI
12.5%
delist rate
Token Launches on the BTC Price Timeline
Launches Per Market Cycle
Methodology
We collected every token whose listing was announced on the Binance blog, including those later delisted. Each token is classified by its launch date into a BTC market cycle (bull or bear) and its long-term annualized ROI is computed. Delisted tokens with no remaining price data are imputed as total losses to avoid survivorship bias.
The primary test is a Mann-Whitney U (non-parametric) comparing annualized ROI between bull-launched and bear-launched tokens, with bootstrap confidence intervals and sensitivity analysis across shifted cycle boundaries.
Key Limitations
- 25 tokens (12%) had insufficient price data for analysis
- Sample is primarily from 2017–2025 Binance listings
- 19 stablecoins and 3 wrapped tokens excluded
- Only tokens that reached Binance listing are included
- 18 delisted tokens imputed as total losses (no price data available)
Disclosures
This report is for informational purposes only. It is not an offer, solicitation, or recommendation to buy or sell any securities, tokens, or digital assets, or to pursue any particular investment strategy. Nothing herein constitutes investment, legal, tax, or other professional advice. You should consult your own advisers before making any investment decisions.
Dragonfly Digital Management, LLC (“Dragonfly”) is an SEC-registered investment adviser that holds positions in cryptocurrency and digital assets, including tokens that may be referenced in this analysis. Dragonfly is acting in its own financial interest and not necessarily in the interests of other token holders.
There are no warranties, expressed or implied, as to the accuracy, completeness, or results obtained from any information provided herein. Information has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but neither Dragonfly nor its affiliates warrant the timeliness, accuracy, or completeness of this information. The information is subject to change without notice.
Past performance is not indicative of future results. Any forward-looking statements reflect current views and involve risks and uncertainties that could cause actual results to differ materially.
For additional information, see Dragonfly’s Disclosures and Terms of Use.
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